Bayesian Spatial Survival Lognormal 3 Parameter Models for Event Processes Dengue Fever in Tuban

Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a disease caused by the dengue virus transmitted by the Aedes Aegypti mosquito. This disease often spreads in residential areas every year. DHF is a major health problem because it can affect all age groups and cause death, especially in children. Some of the triggers for the spread of DHF are the area geographical conditions, and people’s knowledge and awareness of environmental hygiene. The occurrence of DHF in a certain area is caused by the spread of mosquitoes there, so there is a possibility that other areas will be affected too. Therefore, to determine the factors affecting DHF patients’ recovery rate based on the location where the patients seek treatment, the most fitting model is Spatial Survival with Bayesian MCMC method. This study aims to understand the predicting factors of DHF recovery rate based on the patient’s residence (W), such as length of hospitalization (Y), sex (X1), age (X2), patient participation (X3), hematocrit level (X4), thrombocyte count (X5), haemoglobin count (X6), body weight (X7) and patient’s medical record (X8) using lognormal 3 parameter distribution with normal random effect. The result shows that sex (X1), age (X2), patient participation (X3), hematocrit level (X4), thrombocyte count (X5) and patient medical record (X8) are significant factors that affect DHF recovery rate